Sampdoria vs Padova Prediction

Sampdoria vs Padova prediction: a tight Ferraris test

The Sampdoria vs Padova prediction for Saturday, 14 February 2026 (kickoff 14:00 GMT) feels like one of those Serie B afternoons where every duel matters and every mistake gets replayed all week. It’s Round 25 at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa, and the table tells a simple story: these two are close enough to shake hands, but also close enough to feel the heat from the relegation play-out zone.

Padova arrive 13th on 26 points, Sampdoria 14th on 25. On paper it’s mid-table; in reality it’s a “do not blink” fixture, especially with Marassi expected to be lively again. Sampdoria’s crowds have stayed strong despite the uneasy season, and a Valentine’s Day crowd tends to bring both noise and nerves—romance in the stands, tackles on the pitch.

Context, form, and why this game feels like a coin toss

Sampdoria’s mood has lifted since Angelo Gregucci took over in October. The tone is more practical, more resilient, and recently, more rewarding. The Blucerchiati have put together a run of results that suggests the “new manager bounce” is turning into something sturdier, with wins that were built on competing in physical duels and keeping their shape.

Padova, coached by Matteo Andreoletti, have been entertaining in a way that bettors love and defenders do not. Their recent matches have swung between bold attacking moments and a back line that can look a little too open when transitions start flying.

• Sampdoria form note: they just pulled off a surprising away win at Modena on 7 February, priced around 5.6, winning 2-1.
• Padova form note: they earned an unexpected 3-3 away draw at Juve Stabia on 7 February, in a game that refused to calm down.
• Head to head: the last meeting on 20 December 2025 ended 1-1, which fits the “evenly matched” theme.

Tactical angles and team news to watch

Gregucci has spoken about Sampdoria “finding their soul” again, and you can see what he means: more fight without the ball, more care at set pieces, and a push for cleaner decisions in the final third. That matters here because Padova’s open spells can be punished—but only if Samp convert pressure into clear chances.

Andreoletti, meanwhile, has urged his players not to stare at the league table. His bigger concern has been defensive consistency, which has wobbled during Padova’s high-scoring stretches. Expect Padova to press in moments, but also to protect central areas when Sampdoria build through midfield.

• Sampdoria absences: long-term injuries include Lorenzo Malanca and Lorenzo Venuti (cruciate ligaments). Other doubts include Mattia Viti, Simone Romagnoli, and Bartosz Bereszynski. Defender Alex Ferrari is suspended for yellow-card accumulation.
• Padova absences: Alejandro “Papu” Gomez has been managing an ankle issue; Jacopo Bacci and C. Pastina are also out, while Alessandro Capelli is suspended.
• Key names: Nicholas Pierini and Edoardo Soleri have added bite for Sampdoria since arriving in January; Alessandro Seghetti remains a key Padova goal outlet, especially with Capelli missing.

And yes, the “Papu factor” still hangs in the air: Gomez’s return to Italian football has boosted Padova’s profile, even if fitness has limited his minutes. If he features, even briefly, he changes the way Sampdoria have to defend the pockets between midfield and the box.

AI picks, odds, and NerdyTips betting tips

Now to the numbers, where this Sampdoria vs Padova prediction becomes clearer. The 1X2 odds lean toward the hosts: Home win 1.9, Draw 3.4, Away win 5.3. That pricing reflects Sampdoria’s stronger squad value (€41.05m vs Padova’s €15.85m) and the Ferraris factor, but it also respects how often Serie B turns “logic” into a long afternoon.

What our models expect (and what it means for bets)

• Best tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.25), confidence 4.9/10.
• NerdyTips 1X2 suggestion: Home win (1) at 1.9, trust score 2.0.
• NerdyTips goals market: Under 3.5 at 1.25, trust score 5.0.
• Predicted final score: 1-0 Sampdoria.
• Half-time call: 0-0.

The logic ties together neatly: a low-scoring game projection matches a 1-0 full-time call and a 0-0 half-time expectation. The models also see a near-even flow—51% possession to Sampdoria, 49% to Padova—so this is not predicted as a siege. Instead, it looks like a game of small margins: Sampdoria 14 shots to Padova’s 11, but with a clearer edge in shots on target (5 vs 3).

Extra stat hints for bettors

• Corners: 6-4 to Sampdoria (10 total), suggesting steady pressure without constant clear-cut chances.
• Cards: 3 yellows Sampdoria, 2 Padova—useful if you’re browsing cards markets, especially in a relegation-edge context.

So, how to play it? If you want the safer lane, under 3.5 goals fits both the tactical setting and the data, and it survives a lot of “Serie B weirdness” (even a 2-1 still lands). If you want a bolder angle, the home win at 1.9 aligns with squad depth, home support, and the shot-quality edge—just note the lower trust score suggests this is not a “print the ticket” situation.

Final word: expect a tight first half, a game decided by one sharp moment, and at least one dramatic appeal to the referee that convinces nobody except the person shouting it. For more betting tips and the latest head to head notes, this is a fixture where patience is a virtue—and so is backing the unders.