Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Croatia
Preview
When Sibenik hosts HNK Rijeka on May 10, 2025, at Stadion Šubićevac, it’ll be a classic case of a struggling underdog facing a league heavyweight. Our Sibenik vs HNK Rijeka prediction leans toward a low-scoring affair, with Rijeka narrowly edging it—but the numbers tell a deeper story. Let’s break it down.
With Rijeka sitting comfortably at the top of the Croatian HNL (59 points) and Sibenik languishing in 10th (28 points), the nine-position gap screams mismatch. Rijeka’s squad value (€28.73m) dwarfs Sibenik’s (€7.60m), and the betting odds reflect that: a Rijeka win is priced at 1.73, while Sibenik’s unlikely victory sits at 4.8. But football isn’t played on paper—or spreadsheets.
Recent head-to-head meetings suggest Rijeka’s dominance isn’t absolute. Their last encounter in December 2024 ended 1-0 to Rijeka, but Sibenik managed a 1-1 draw away in March 2025 as +10.0 underdogs. Even Rijeka’s 0-0 stalemate at Dinamo Zagreb last November (at odds of 5.0) hints they can be stifled. So, why the confidence in another Rijeka win?
The stats paint a clear picture:
Our AI’s sports betting algorithms flag under 2.5 goals (1.57 odds, 6.0/10 confidence) as the standout pick. A 0-1 Rijeka win, with a 0-0 halftime score, aligns with their pragmatic style and Sibenik’s resilience at home.
Rijeka’s slight edge in possession (55% vs 45%) and corners (5 to 3) hints at sustained pressure, but Sibenik’s compact shape could frustrate them. With just 8 total corners and 6 combined on-target shots expected, this won’t be a thriller. Even disciplinary stats (2 yellows for Sibenik, 3 for Rijeka) suggest a choppy, midfield-heavy contest.
While Rijeka’s win odds (1.73) are short, pairing it with under 2.5 goals (1.57) boosts returns. Alternatively, a correct score bet of 0-1 (mirroring December’s result) offers intrigue. For risk-takers, another 1-1 draw at long odds (3.4) isn’t unthinkable—Sibenik’s March result proves they can scrap.
Remember: HNL away wins occur just 30.6% of the time, but Rijeka’s class should tell. As the Sibenik vs HNK Rijeka prediction goes, sometimes the obvious pick—backing the better team in a low-scoring game—is the smartest.
This won’t be a classic. Expect Rijeka to grind, Sibenik to cling on, and goals to be scarce. The numbers, the head-to-head, and the betting odds all whisper the same thing: a narrow, tactical win for the leaders. If you’re watching, don’t blink—you might miss the decisive moment.
Read More
U2.5 -175
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1752 -154
HNK Rijeka is expected to win with odds of -137Under 2.5 -175
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -167
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -333
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:1
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1
-
3
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12
|
|
 Sibenik |
10-May-25
0:1
| HNK Rijeka  |
| HNK Rijeka |
07-Mar-25
1:1
| Sibenik |
| Sibenik |
08-Dec-24
0:1
| HNK Rijeka |
| HNK Rijeka |
22-Sep-24
3:0
| Sibenik |
| HNK Rijeka |
08-Apr-23
1:0
| Sibenik |
| Sibenik |
28-Jan-23
1:2
| HNK Rijeka |
| HNK Rijeka |
18-Sep-22
0:0
| Sibenik |
| Sibenik |
16-Jul-22
0:1
| HNK Rijeka |
| Sibenik |
30-Apr-22
3:5
| HNK Rijeka |
| HNK Rijeka |
20-Feb-22
4:2
| Sibenik |
Recent Matches of Sibenik
Recent Matches of HNK Rijeka
| 24 Jan | D | Rijeka. |
2:2 |
Slaven Belup. |
Croatia - HNL| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
HNK Rijeka | 36 | 49-21 | 65 |
| 2 |
Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 69-41 | 65 |
| 3 |
HNK Hajduk | 36 | 49-34 | 63 |
| 4 |
NK Varazdin | 36 | 28-24 | 49 |
| 5 |
NK Slaven | 36 | 42-45 | 48 |
| 6 |
Istra 1961 | 36 | 39-42 | 48 |
| 7 |
NK Osijek | 36 | 46-52 | 42 |
| 8 |
NK Lokomotiva | 36 | 45-54 | 39 |
| 9 |
HNK Gorica | 36 | 29-51 | 37 |
| 10 |
Sibenik | 36 | 28-60 | 30 |
