Ujpest vs Ferencvarosi

Budapest Derby prediction: Újpest vs Fradi betting guide

Ujpest vs Ferencvarosi prediction time is here, and the calendar has picked a perfect moment for it: Sunday, 2026-05-03 at 15:00 GMT (16:00 local) at Szusza Ferenc Stadion. It’s Round 32 of the NB I (Fizz Liga), the penultimate round, and it comes with real pressure attached—not just noisy stands and loud scarves.

The big story is the table. Ferencváros (Fradi) are chasing ETO FC Győr and trail by three points, meaning a “nice point away” is not really the plan. For the first time in years, the title is not politely waiting for them. On top of that, there’s a piece of Hungarian history sitting on the line: Fradi have won seven straight league titles and currently share the all-time record of seven consecutive championships with Újpest (set between 1969 and 1975). If Újpest can take points here, they don’t only help themselves—they also stop their biggest rivals from owning that record alone. In a derby, that counts as extra fuel.

Match context, form, and what it may look like on the pitch

Újpest arrive as a mid-table side with a “you never know which version turns up” profile. They lost 2-0 away at Puskás Akadémia on April 25, but before that they showed they can score in bunches, highlighted by a wild 7-2 win over Nyíregyháza and a confident 3-0 against Kazincbarcika. That mix often points to a team that can punish mistakes, but may struggle if forced to defend for long periods.

Ferencváros, meanwhile, responded well after a key 1-0 loss to title rivals Győr. They beat Paks 2-0 on April 26 with Lenny Joseph scoring both, and they also got a form of revenge by eliminating Győr in the Hungarian Cup semi-final on penalties. In other words: Fradi have recently had to handle “must-win” emotions, and they didn’t melt.

• Derby angle: intensity usually rises, and decision-making can drop. That often means more transitions and more shots.
• Újpest’s route: keep compact, survive the first wave, then counter quickly into space when Fradi push numbers forward.
• Fradi’s route: dominate the ball, pin Újpest back, and turn sustained pressure into chances early—because late nerves are not a good hobby.

The most recent head to head meeting on 2025-10-19 ended 1-1. That result also came with pre-match odds leaning Fradi’s way (around 1.8), so Újpest already proved they can disrupt expectations. And both clubs have shown they can grind out tough away draws in recent seasons: Újpest earned a 1-1 at Puskás Akadémia on 2024-11-02 despite long odds, while Ferencváros pulled a 1-1 at Fenerbahçe on 2025-11-27 when few gave them a chance. These are useful signals for bettors: neither side panics easily when the setting is hostile.

Ujpest vs Ferencvarosi prediction based on AI stats

Now to the numbers that shape our Ujpest vs Ferencvarosi prediction for betting tips readers. The market already makes Fradi a clear favorite: Home win 5.35, Draw 4.2, Away win 1.62. Our model agrees and actually likes the away side enough to recommend a straight “2”.

Main betting tips (NerdyTips model)

• Best tip (1X2): Away win (2) at 1.62 with trust 8.8/10
• Correct score lean: 0:3
• Half-time score forecast: 0:3 (aggressive, but consistent with the expected early pressure)
• Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 at 1.62, but trust is only 2.3/10

The underlying match stats forecast explains why the “2” looks strong. Possession is projected at 38% for Újpest and 62% for Ferencváros, with shots leaning 6 to 14 and shots on target 2 to 5. That’s the profile of a team likely to spend long spells defending and needing to be very efficient on the break. Corners are also tilted (2 vs 4, total 6), suggesting Fradi should spend more time in the attacking third.

Squad value is another quiet indicator: Újpest are estimated around €15.07m versus Ferencváros at €43.38m. Money does not score goals on its own, but depth matters late in the season—especially in a match where Fradi need three points more than they need a heroic story.

How to read the goal markets

Our AI leans to Over 2.5, yet with very low trust. That is a warning sign: the model sees routes to goals (Fradi pressure, derby transitions), but not enough stability to call it confidently. If you want to keep it simple, the away win is the cleaner angle, while goals markets feel more “derby mood dependent.” Yellow cards are predicted at 1 for Újpest and 2 for Fradi—moderate for a derby, which may be optimistic given the stakes and the historical record on the line.

Final word: the head to head is recent-draw friendly, but the title race context plus the projected shot volume points toward a Fradi win. In plain terms: Ferencváros look more likely to do the scoring, and Újpest look more likely to do the suffering—with the home crowd hoping to turn that into chaos.