Cordoba vs Leganes Prediction

Cordoba vs Leganes prediction: home edge or another twist?

The Cordoba vs Leganes prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026 (13:00 GMT) is a fun one to unpack, because it mixes a strong home trend with a Leganés team that can be annoyingly hard to beat when they decide to lock the doors. The setting is the Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba (capacity 21,822), sometimes branded as the Estadio Bahrain Victorious Nuevo Arcángel, and the table context adds spice: Córdoba sit 7th, Leganés 13th. That’s not “must-win” panic, but it is “promotion conversation vs. mid-table uncertainty” pressure.

Context, coaches, and why styles matter

Córdoba have looked like a team with an identity. Iván Ania has kept things stable, often leaning on a 4-3-3 built around possession and using the wings to stretch teams. At home especially, they tend to play with the confidence of a side that expects the crowd to do half the running for them. Leganés, by contrast, have had a messy season: Paco López was dismissed in December 2025 and Igor Oca stepped in as caretaker. Since then, the Pepineros have tried to become more compact and reactive, sometimes at the expense of attacking rhythm.

What to watch tactically

• Córdoba’s width vs Leganés’ block: if Córdoba’s wingers pin the fullbacks, the central lanes open for late runs and cut-backs.
• Leganés counters: Oca’s plan often looks like “stay alive, then break fast.” Córdoba’s rest defense will matter.
• Set pieces: these games can swing on one delivery if open play gets sticky.

Team news notes and key men

In Córdoba’s camp, there are a few fitness clouds: Alberto del Moral and Juan María have been carrying discomfort and are listed as doubtful. Also, right-back Carlos Albarrán is one booking away from suspension, which can change how aggressively he defends wide areas. For Leganés, Rubén Pulido remains out long term, while Ignasi Miquel is also flirting with a ban due to discipline.

In terms of form players, Córdoba’s Sergi Guardiola brings goals and presence—he’s even had a recent brace in a 3-1 win over Valladolid and leads his side for shots on target. Behind him, Cristian Carracedo has been the main chance-creator, with seven “big chances” fashioned this season. Leganés’ main threat is Duk, their leader for shots on target and big chances created, while goalkeeper Iker Álvarez has been the reason some games didn’t get away from them.

Extra angles: head to head, money, and recent surprises

The head to head lean is not perfect for Córdoba: they haven’t won the last three meetings (two losses, one draw), and the reverse fixture earlier this season ended 0-0, which is basically Leganés’ dream script. Still, Córdoba have been dominant at the Nuevo Arcángel lately, winning five of their last home games.

On paper, Leganés have the pricier squad (€22.90m vs Córdoba’s €15.80m), but football doesn’t give points for accounting. Córdoba showed their “we can upset anyone” side with that big away win at Oviedo on 2024-12-21 (odds 5.0, won 2-3). Leganés have also had their surprise moments, like the 1-1 draw away at Racing Santander on 2025-12.13 when few expected them to get anything.

Betting tips: NerdyTips picks and market prediction

Now to the numbers, where our Cordoba vs Leganes Prediction starts to sound very “home-friendly, but not reckless.” The 1X2 odds are Home 2.1, Draw 3.4, Away 3.9, and that pricing lines up with the idea that Córdoba have the higher floor at home.

Main bets we like (based on NerdyTips data)

• Best bet: 1X (Córdoba win or draw) — trust score 8.8/10, odds 1.3.
• 1X2 lean: Home win (1) — confidence 7.1, odds 2.1.
• Goals market: Under 3.5 goals — confidence 7.6, odds 1.3.

Why does 1X look so clean? Because the match shape points to Córdoba control rather than chaos. The projections expect Córdoba to edge possession 57% to 43%, with a shot count around 16 to 10. Even shots on target are modest (5 vs 3), which fits the Under 3.5 pick: enough chances for a result, not necessarily enough for a goal-fest. Corners are also close (6 vs 5, total 11), suggesting pressure from Córdoba but not total one-way traffic.

Discipline is forecast to be even (2 yellow cards each). That matters because games like this can break if one team goes down to 10 or starts defending on a booking tightrope. If it stays 11v11, Córdoba’s structure and home rhythm should show.

Correct score call and how it matches the story

• Full-time prediction: 2.1
• Half-time prediction: 1-0

A 1-0 halftime makes sense if Córdoba start fast, feed off the crowd (and yes, the club tends to lean into that Valentine’s Day “Enamorados del Córdoba” vibe). Then the second half becomes a test of game management: Córdoba pushing for control, Leganés waiting for that one counter or set-piece moment. In short, our Cordoba vs Leganes prediction is a home-leaning read with sensible insurance: take 1X if you want stability, and consider the home win if you want the bigger price and agree the numbers point Córdoba’s way.