Modena vs Carrarese Prediction

Modena vs Carrarese prediction: Braglia tension and tight margins

The Modena vs Carrarese prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026 (kickoff 14:00 GMT) starts with one simple truth: Serie B mid-table games often look calm on paper, then turn into 90 minutes of nerves. This Round 25 meeting at the Stadio Alberto Braglia has that feel, with Modena arriving uplifted and Carrarese arriving annoyed.

Match context, form, and why this feels like a chess game

Modena come in riding the mood of a huge result: a 2–0 away win over leaders Venezia on February 10. It was the kind of performance that makes a coach sound like a poet after full-time—Andrea Sottil has talked about the team “finding its engine” and occupying spaces better, and the last outing backed that up. At the Braglia they have been hard to bend, with five home wins and three draws this season.

Carrarese, meanwhile, are trying to reset after a narrow 0–1 defeat to Padova in midweek. Their season has swung between “that’s impressive” (like the 3–0 over Empoli in late January) and “why didn’t you shoot?” They’ve also carried a slightly negative goal profile (31 scored, 32 conceded), which is usually the math of a team still learning how to manage away games.

Tactical snapshot: 3-5-2 mirrors and wingback energy

Both managers have leaned on a 3-5-2 recently, which often produces a match decided by wingbacks and midfield timing rather than waves of chances. Modena’s version under Sottil is higher-press and more direct when the press lands. Against Venezia, wingbacks Daniel Tonoli and Gady Beyuku were decisive, and you can expect Modena to try and pin Carrarese’s wide players back again.

Carrarese under Antonio Calabro tend to bring spirit first and structure second—possession has been there (64% in their last game), but the final pass has not always been friendly. They look most dangerous when Luis Hasa can connect quickly with Fabio Abiuso, the physical reference point up front.

• Key subplot: Abiuso returns to Modena as Carrarese’s top scorer (8 goals) and an obvious “ex-factor” stress test for the home defence.
• Player watch: Beyuku’s rise has been fast (reportedly on the radar of bigger clubs), and his wingback role gives Modena a natural outlet even in tight games.
• Touchline note: Calabro is expected back after serving a suspension, which matters in a match he has called a “battle of nerves.”

Head to head and the psychology of recent meetings

The head to head leans Modena in recent years, and the last confirmed meeting on 2024-11-09 ended 2–0 to Modena. These teams have also produced tactical stalemates in other recent encounters, which fits the idea of two back-threes cancelling each other out until someone blinks.

Betting odds and what the market is saying

Looking at the betting odds, Modena are clearly favored: Home win 1.7, draw 3.7, away win 6.3. That aligns with home strength, a slightly higher squad value (€28.33m vs €19.20m), and Modena’s more stable defensive identity under Sottil.

NerdyTips angle: predictions, total goals, and a scoreline that makes sense

Now to the NerdyTips numbers and the second Modena vs Carrarese prediction lens: our model points strongest toward a controlled match rather than a goal festival.

• Best tip: Under 3.5 goals (confidence 8.0/10, odds 1.35). In plain terms: a maximum of three goals.
• 1X2 lean: 1X (Modena or draw) with low confidence (2.0) at odds 1.15.
• Expected score: 1–1, with an anticipated half-time score of 1–0.

The stats behind that “under” are coherent. Modena are forecast for 56% possession and 18 shots, but only 5 on target—pressure without constant clear looks. Carrarese are projected at 10 shots and 3 on target, which is enough to nick a goal without dominating. Add the corner projection (7–5, total 12), and you get a picture of territory and set-piece moments rather than open-field chaos.

Discipline also hints at a match that’s tense but not out of control: one yellow projected for Modena, two for Carrarese. That’s more “arguments with the referee” than “four-goal swing.” So if you’re building a sensible bet around total goals, under 3.5 fits the story: Modena pushing, Carrarese resisting, and Abiuso waiting for one clean chance to make the Braglia uncomfortable.