Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
When Troyes hosts Ajaccio at Stade de l'Aube on April 11, 2025, it’s more than just a mid-table battle—it’s a clash of contrasting budgets, styles, and ambitions. Despite only a 3-point gap separating them (Troyes 13th with 34, Ajaccio 10th with 37), the home side’s squad value towers at €22.6m compared to Ajaccio’s modest €8.45m. Will financial muscle translate to three points, or can the underdogs defy the odds once again?
Ligue 2 is a league of fine margins. Home wins occur 35.1% of the time, while 56.4% of matches see over 1.5 goals—a trend our AI predicts will continue, tipping over 1.5 goals at 1.5 odds. Troyes’ 3.2 victory in their last meeting (January 2024) suggests psychological dominance, but Ajaccio’s recent 1-0 upset over Metz (at a staggering 8.0 odds) proves they’re capable of surprises. With 39.9% of league matches ending drawn, this one could go either way—but Troyes’ home advantage tilts the scales.
Our algorithms forecast Troyes dominating 59% possession, outshooting Ajaccio 14 to 8 (5 vs 2 on-target). Those 5 predicted corners for Troyes could be decisive in a match expected to yield 2.1 goals. Ajaccio’s 41% possession forecast aligns with their league-low 25% away win rate, making their 4.5 victory odds a risky bet. While Troyes’ control might not guarantee early fireworks (a 1-0 halftime score is predicted), their higher squad value could wear down Ajaccio’s defense late, validating the 1.87 odds for a home win.
Expect a tight first half, with Troyes’ quality eventually shining through. A 2-1 final score aligns with their expected shots and possession dominance, while Ajaccio’s resilience keeps it competitive. With just 1 yellow card predicted for each side, discipline won’t derail the narrative. For bettors, the smart money leans on Troyes’ home win (1.87 odds) and over 1.5 goals—a combo reflecting both data and the drama of Ligue 2.
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Troyes didn't play better in the last H2H match!
O1.5 -200
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2001 -115
Troyes is expected to win with odds of -115Over 1.5 -200
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes 120
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -133
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:1
|
|
9
-
3
-
8
|
|
 Estac Troyes |
11-Apr-25
0:0
| Ajaccio  |
| Ajaccio |
30-Aug-24
2:1
| Estac Troyes |
| Estac Troyes |
13-Jan-24
3:1
| Ajaccio |
| Ajaccio |
11-Nov-23
1:0
| Estac Troyes |
| Ajaccio |
26-Feb-23
2:1
| Estac Troyes |
| Estac Troyes |
16-Oct-22
1:1
| Ajaccio |
| Estac Troyes |
27-Feb-21
1:0
| Ajaccio |
| Ajaccio |
31-Oct-20
0:4
| Estac Troyes |
| Estac Troyes |
21-Dec-19
2:1
| Ajaccio |
Recent Matches of Estac Troyes| 31 Jan |
Troyes.
|
-
| Le Mans.
| |
| 24 Jan | L |
Guingamp.
|
1:0
| Troyes.
|
Recent Matches of Ajaccio
France - Ligue 2| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lorient | 34 | 68-31 | 71 |
| 2 |
Paris FC | 34 | 55-33 | 69 |
| 3 |
Metz | 34 | 64-34 | 65 |
| 4 |
Dunkerque | 34 | 47-40 | 56 |
| 5 |
Guingamp | 34 | 57-45 | 55 |
| 6 |
Annecy | 34 | 42-43 | 51 |
| 7 |
Laval | 34 | 44-38 | 50 |
| 8 |
Bastia | 34 | 43-37 | 48 |
| 9 |
Grenoble | 34 | 43-44 | 46 |
| 10 |
Estac Troyes | 34 | 36-34 | 44 |
| 11 |
Amiens | 34 | 38-50 | 43 |
| 12 |
Ajaccio | 34 | 30-42 | 42 |
| 13 |
PAU | 34 | 39-53 | 42 |
| 14 |
Rodez | 34 | 56-54 | 39 |
| 15 |
RED Star FC 93 | 34 | 37-51 | 38 |
| 16 |
Clermont Foot | 34 | 30-46 | 33 |
| 17 |
Martigues | 34 | 29-56 | 32 |
| 18 |
Caen | 34 | 31-58 | 22 |
