Union Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo Prediction

Union Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo prediction: tight night in Santa Fe

The Union Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo prediction for Round 5 of Argentina’s Liga Profesional (Apertura) lands on a familiar theme: fine margins, nervous moments, and a stadium that can tilt a match all by itself. They meet on 2026-02-14 at the Estadio 15 de Abril, with kickoff at 01:15 GMT (Friday night local time in Argentina), and both arrive with reasons to believe… and a few reasons to check the injury list twice.

Match context: the 15 de Abril factor meets a transitional San Lorenzo

Unión (El Tate) come into this one needing a response after a 1-0 loss to Central Córdoba—so flat that Leonardo Madelón openly called it their worst performance of the year. But the same team also showed what their ceiling looks like at home when they ran over Gimnasia de Mendoza 4.1. That’s the version the Santa Fe crowd expects, and at 15 de Abril, expectations are never quiet.

San Lorenzo, meanwhile, arrive bruised from a derby defeat to Huracán (Feb 8). Before that they nicked a gritty 1-0 win against Central Córdoba, but the bigger picture is that Damián Ayude is still building: new faces, new combinations, and a system that can flip between 4-3-3 and a tighter midfield diamond depending on the opponent.

Team news and tactical notes to watch

This game has “adjustments” written all over it.

• Unión’s key miss: centre-back Valentín Fascendini is out after a muscle tear, and Juan Pablo Ludueña looks like the natural replacement. That changes how high Unión can defend and how brave they can be in duels.
• Fitness watch: Augusto Solari is still battling a muscle issue and is unlikely to play, while Lucas Menossi is being brought up to speed before he is handed a full starting role.
• Attacking spark: new winger Brian Cuello is available, and Unión could use his direct running if this becomes one of those games where the ball moves faster than the defenders want.
• San Lorenzo’s doubts: Jhohan Romaña is a major question with ankle inflammation, and Daniel Herrera remains out long-term (cruciate ligament).
• New pieces: Gregorio Rodríguez (fresh from his first goal), Matías de Ritis, and Guzmán Corujo are in the mix, while Luciano Vietto is being managed carefully as he builds minutes after past muscle problems.

Ayude has also admitted the squad is still looking for a true number 9 for depth—right now they lean heavily on Andrés Vombergar, with Alexis Cuello offering flexibility. That matters in Santa Fe, where chances can be scarce and you need someone who treats half-chances like full meals.

Head to head: history says “edge”, recent meetings say “draw”

There’s a slight historical edge for San Lorenzo in this fixture, but recent head to head meetings have been tight, including four draws in the last six. The last time they met (2024.16-15), Unión won 2-1—another reminder that home comfort can outweigh market value. And yes, that matters when San Lorenzo’s squad is valued around €37.70m compared to Unión’s €22.95m: money talks, but 15 de Abril shouts.

Union Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo prediction: betting angles and AI picks

Now to the numbers—and the betting odds suggest a game where Unión are slight favourites: Home win 2.38, Draw 3.0, Away win 4.1. That pricing fits the story: Unión’s home strength versus San Lorenzo’s higher ceiling but ongoing adjustment period.

Best tip: 1X (Unión or Draw)

Our AI’s top call is 1X at odds 1.32, confidence 5.8/10. In plain words: Unión don’t have to win for the bet to land, and that’s appealing given how often this matchup tightens into a wrestling match rather than a sprint.

• Possession forecast: Unión 56% vs San Lorenzo 44% suggests the home side should control territory more often.
• Shot map outlook: 14 shots for Unión vs 8 for San Lorenzo, with just 3 vs 2 on target—good for control, not necessarily for chaos.
• Discipline: 2 yellows projected for Unión, 4 for San Lorenzo. If that swings true, set pieces and game management could tilt toward the hosts late on.

1X2 lean: Unión to win

The AI 1X2 prediction is 1 (home win) with trust 4.8 and odds 2.38. It’s not a “max confidence” type of pick—more a nod to Unión’s home platform and San Lorenzo’s current search for settled patterns, especially if Romaña can’t go.

Total goals: Under 2.38 looks logical

For total goals, the model likes under 2.38 at 1.327 (confidence 5.3). The predicted final score is 1-0, with a 0-0 half-time. That lines up neatly with the expected low on-target numbers and the recent trend of tight head to head meetings.

So, the final Union Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo prediction reads like this: Unión to avoid defeat (1X) as the safest route, a small lean to the home win if you want the bigger price, and under 2.38 goals if you expect a tactical night where chances need an invitation. Bring patience—and maybe a coffee for that late kickoff.