Heerenveen vs Zwolle Prediction

Heerenveen vs Zwolle prediction for a lively Sunday lunch

The Heerenveen vs Zwolle prediction story writes itself this week: two mid-table neighbours, one point apart, meeting on Sunday, 2025.92-15 at 13:30 GMT (14:30 local) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion. It is not a pure derby, but it still feels like a “Derby of the North-ish” kind of afternoon, with regional pride on the line and referee Ingmar Oostrom keeping an eye on the emotions. If you like sports betting, this fixture has that classic Eredivisie mix of nerves, goals, and one defensive mistake that will be replayed for a week.

Match context, team news, and why this feels tense

Heerenveen (12th) and PEC Zwolle (11th) have both been hard to read lately, like a mystery novel where every chapter changes the main suspect. Heerenveen’s recent run has been erratic, and they arrive after a rough 5-0 loss to Twente plus a cup exit to PSV. Zwolle have also been up-and-down and come in after a disappointing 1-2 home defeat to Volendam.

• Heerenveen injuries/suspension: Lasse Nordås (back), Levi Smans (knee), and Sam Kersten (knee) are out. Maas Willemsen is suspended (yellow cards).
• Dylan Vente watch: the striker is doubtful with a calf issue. He trained again, but 90 minutes sounds optimistic.
• Key man: Jacob Trenskow (7 goals) becomes even more important if Vente cannot start.
• Zwolle injuries: goalkeeper Jasper Schendelaar (hip/thigh) is out for about a month, and Damian van der Haar (ankle) is out until late March. Long-term absences include Samir Lagsir, Zico Buurmeester, and Odysseus Velanas.
• Doubts: Tristan Gooijer (knee) and Younes Namli (groin) are being monitored.
• Key man: Koen Kostons (10 goals) is the main reason Zwolle always look one pass away from scoring.

Tactically, Heerenveen under Robin Veldman often line up in a 4-2-3-1 with high energy pressing, but Veldman has openly demanded more “bite” when the team loses the ball. Zwolle, coached by Henry van der Vegt, lean toward a 4-3-3 and try to feed Kostons quickly, especially via their wingers. Away from home, Zwolle have looked more comfortable countering than breaking down a packed defence.

Storylines to keep in mind before you bet

The head to head angle is fun here. Their last meeting on 2024-10-06 ended 1-1, and historically this fixture has often leaned under 2.5 goals. But recent defensive wobble on both sides hints at something more open this time. Also, watch the Namli subplot: he returned to Zwolle in January 2026 and previously played for Heerenveen (2015–2017), so if he’s fit, he’ll have extra motivation.

Betting odds, tips, and our Heerenveen vs Zwolle prediction

Now to the numbers that matter for sports betting. The main betting odds are clear: Home win 1.57, Draw 4.5, Away win 5.9. That pricing says Heerenveen are expected to do the job, but not without drama.

• 1X2 market: NerdyTips’ AI recommends 1 (Heerenveen win) with trust 5.9/10 at 1.57.
• Our analysis: also lands on 1 as most likely, confidence 6.1, odds 1.57.
• Goals market: AI leans Over 2.5 goals with trust 4.5 at 1.52.

Why do the models like the home win? Heerenveen’s squad value (€41.12m) is notably higher than Zwolle’s (€22.55m), and at Abe Lenstra Stadion they usually find ways to create enough chances. Zwolle’s injury list (especially the missing starting keeper) adds risk, while Heerenveen’s own absences mainly raise questions about how clinical they will be up front if Vente is limited.

Still, this is not a “sit back and relax” home-win pick. Both sides have shown they can shock bigger teams recently: Heerenveen won away at Feyenoord on 2025-12-17 at huge odds (8.5), finishing 2-3, and Zwolle beat AZ 3-1 on 2025.91-17 priced at 5.9. Translation: confidence is nice, but humility is cheaper than a bad bet.

Final NerdyTips call: Heerenveen vs Zwolle prediction goes for Heerenveen to win (1.57), with a side glance at goals. The projected final score is 3:2, with an expected half-time of 1:1. If that happens, your Sunday lunch will be cold… but your bet slip might be warm.